Economia

I conti sull’Ipad economia dei media

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Via il Giornalaio TBI Research pubblica una simulazione che dimostra chiaramente come l’ennesima corsa all’oro scatenata dal lancio dell’ iPad non salverà neanche lontanamente i bilanci degli editori. Simulando possibili scenari diversi, anche ipotizzando che, al di là di ogni più rosea aspettativa, vengano venduti 16 milioni di iPad nei prossimi due anni, i ricavi … Leggi tutto

L’Ipad, il CD-ROM e il mercato dei media ieri e oggi

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Via Techdirt

The media has been making a huge deal about how the iPad is supposed to “save the business,” because suddenly everything will return to apps, and people pay for apps, and toss in a big dose of “Steve Jobs!” and there’s some sort of magic formula which includes some question marks and inevitably ends in profit! Now, the iPad does look like a nice device, and I have no doubt that it will do quite well for Apple, and many buyers will be quite happy with it. But it’s not going to save the media business in any way, shape or form. It’s just the media chasing a rainbow in search of gold that doesn’t exist.

A few months back, I tried to ask a simple question that we still haven’t received a good answer to: all of these media companies, thinking that iPad apps are somehow revolutionary, don’t explain why they never put that same functionality online. They could. But didn’t. There’s nothing special about the iPad that enables functionality you couldn’t do elsewhere. But, it goes deeper than that. People are being taken down by app madness. Because the iPhone has sold a bunch of apps, suddenly old school media players are suddenly dreaming of the sorts of control they used to have, and pretending it can be replicated on the iPad. But that’s a big myth.

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Qualche pensiero sull’Ipad

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Mentre in Italia si svolge l’esodo pasquale, oggi è il giorno attesissimo dell’uscita fisica, nei negozi americani, dell’IPad. Noi Europa siamo una colonia di seconda colonizzazione per cui dovremo aspettare di più per toccare il magico “coso” di Apple. Questo se può essere un limite per i geek incalliti che oramai hanno lingua penzoloni per testare il nuovo giocattolone, è un’utile occasione per delle valutazioni più ponderate.

Il mondo dei media si è lanciato tribalmente in recensioni molto positive sottolineando anche che l’Ipad è una sfida, un nuovo prodotto che vuole imporre un nuovo standard di device. Sicuramente i media tradizionali patiscono un grave problema di conflitto di interessi. E’ come se fino a ieri strade ed autostrade fossero ugualmente gratuite e se da oggi venissero messi i caselli sulle autostrade per poter effettuare i pagamenti. A questo punto i gestori delle autostrade si troverebbero a spiegarci che i caselli sono belli e utili e che dobbiamo tutti utilizzarli .

Siamo in attesa che Apple inizi a fare girare per l’Europa degli Ipad per test o che, più facile, ci si introduca con fare sornione in un Mediaworld del caso chiedendo distratti a un commesso di giocare un po’ con “sa quella novità di Apple di cui parlano tutti i media”. A quel punto potremp piano piano capire davvero se l’Ipad è un oggetto che cambierà la fruizione dei media.
Mettiamo insieme quattro pensieri sul tema.

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Ipad: l’ultima speranza per gli old media

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John Dvorak via Marketwatch

In addition to creating a fantastic media promotional blitz to jack up the public for the iPad, Apple Inc. Chief Executive Steve Jobs cajoled many of the big name newspapers and magazines to create a special edition of their publications for the device. The not-so-subtle message is that you are all toast. Your future is the iPad.

And while this may or may not be true, it added a new dimension to the promotion machine: conflict of interest.

What kind of reviews can we expect to find in those same grandiose publications? Well you can be sure that they are not going to slam their future distribution medium.

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I giornalisti vogliono una figura paterna che li rassicuri che i lettori pagheranno

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Cory Doctorow non comprerà un Ipad

I think that the press has been all over the iPad because Apple puts on a good show, and because everyone in journalism-land is looking for a daddy figure who’ll promise them that their audience will go back to paying for their stuff. The reason people have stopped paying for a lot of “content” isn’t just that they can get it for free, though: it’s that they can get lots of competing stuff for free, too. The open platform has allowed for an explosion of new material, some of it rough-hewn, some of it slick as the pros, most of it targetted more narrowly than the old media ever managed. Rupert Murdoch can rattle his saber all he likes about taking his content out of Google, but I say do it, Rupert. We’ll miss your fraction of a fraction of a fraction of a percent of the Web so little that we’ll hardly notice it, and we’ll have no trouble finding material to fill the void.

Just like the gadget press is full of devices that gadget bloggers need (and that no one else cares about), the mainstream press is full of stories that affirm the internal media consensus. Yesterday’s empires do something sacred and vital and most of all grown up, and that other adults will eventually come along to move us all away from the kids’ playground that is the wild web, with its amateur content and lack of proprietary channels where exclusive deals can be made. We’ll move back into the walled gardens that best return shareholder value to the investors who haven’t updated their portfolios since before eTrade came online.

But the real economics of iPad publishing tell a different story: even a stellar iPad sales performance isn’t going to do much to staunch the bleeding from traditional publishing. Wishful thinking and a nostalgia for the good old days of lockdown won’t bring customers back through the door.

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Le strategie di marketing di Steve Jobs

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Via Digital Inspiration

Apple’s marketing strategy for a new product (like the iPad) works something like this:

Phase 1 – Steve Jobs will announce the product in an “invite-only” event weeks before the product is actually due for shipping.

Phase 2 – Apple will send review units to a very select group of people (let’s call them the Inner Circle). These reviewers get to test the product (secretly) for days and, on a pre-decided date, they can push their reviews online.

Phase 3 – Consumers can now buy the product. That’s the day when you see long queues of people camping outside the Apple retail stores.

We’re still in Phase II of the iPad launch – the first reviews are in and everyone seems to be pretty impressed with the Apple Tablet Slate.

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Perchè Ipad non salverà le riviste

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Via TBI Research

Magazine industry advertising revenue declined an average of 12% the past 2 years (18% in 2009) so most magazines need to reverse revenue declines while managing costs or face the real prospect of going out of business if the bleeding continues.

Some believe the iPad will enable magazines to reverse course in the near-term, but we believe these expectations are way off the mark.  In particular:

  • It’s going to be years for mobile ad revenue to become material.
  • As a result, in the near-term magazines will need to look to subscription revenue to drive incremental profits.
  • But, even if iPad sales wildly exceed expectations and users rush to purchase lots of magazine subscriptions (we don’t think they will), this will not be enough to drive meaningful revenue at most magazines.

EVEN IF IPADS FLY OFF THE SHELVES MAGAZINES WILL STILL ONLY REALIZE A SMALL PERCENT OF THEIR OVERALL PRINT REVENUE

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